Methods of Lightning Forecast in Wuhan Based on Convective Indexes
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Abstract:
An analysis is made of the statistical characteristics of 20 convective indexes in 291 samples from June to August, 2011 to 2013 in Wuhan and their correlation with lightning activities. The results indicate that the correlation between some convective indexes and lightning activities is good. The equation of lightning probability potential forecast is constructed by means of multidimensional linear regression using those convective indexes for prediction with consideration of each index in close correlation with lightning activities, and passed the significance test of α = 0.05. Using the lightning data from June to August in 2014, the forecast results are verified. The results show that: Percent of Doom (POD) is 82.6%, False Alarm Rate (FAR) is 23.3%, Critical Success Index (CSI) is 63.3%. It is obvious that this method has better indicative significance and reference value for Wuhan lightning activity forecasting and warning.
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Supported by:Beijing E-Tiller Technology Development Co., Ltd.
Supported by:Beijing E-Tiller Technology Development Co., Ltd.