Warning Model of Risk Degree for Bridge/Road Surface Icing of Expressway Based on Logistic Regression
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Abstract:
In order to improve the capability of highway traffic meteorological service in Hubei Province, and to provide the warning the products of icing on the bridge and road surface along the Wuying expressway, based on the observations of bridge and road surface temperature and conventional meteorological data from Fenghuangguan Station from 2009 to 2011 in winter, the variation regularity of conditional frequency of temperature for icing with the environmental temperature of bridge and road surface is analzed, and the warning model of risk degree for icing was established by using the logistic regression method. The results show that icing on bridge surface is more frequently than on road surface in the same environmental temperature. The environmental temperature for icing is usually 2 ℃ lower on bridge surface than on road surface. The environmental temperatures corresponding to the low, middle, and high of risk degrees of icing on bridge surface is 1 ℃,-06 ℃, and-22 ℃; and those of icing on road surface is -1 ℃,-27 ℃, and -44 ℃, respectively. The frequency of icing on bridge (road) surface varies quickly when the environmental temperature is -16 ℃ to 03 ℃ (-38 ℃ to -17 ℃), and the most sensitive temperature point to frequency change is about -06 ℃ （-27 ℃）. Therefore, the traffic risk of icing on road surface in winter can be reduced through using the warning products of icing on the bridge/road surface of the expressway.
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Supported by:Beijing E-Tiller Technology Development Co., Ltd.
Supported by:Beijing E-Tiller Technology Development Co., Ltd.