Characteristics and Identification of Rapidly Intensifying Tropical Cyclones in Western North Pacific Basin
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Abstract:
The best tracks and satellitesborne infrared cloud top temperatures (TBB) observations of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Final Analysis are employed to examine the largescale and innercore convection and characteristics of tropical cyclones (TCs) undergoing different intensity changes in the western North Pacific (WNP) and South China Sea (SCS) ocean basins from 2000 to 2014. The mean conditions of TCs cases that undergo rapid intensification (RI) are compared to those of the nonRI cases. In addition, the nonRI cases are defined in four other intensity change bins: slow intensification (SI), intensification stable (IS), slow weakness (SW) and rapid weakness (RW). For the environmental variables, statistically significant differences are found between RI cases and nonRI samples, especially in IS, SW and RW groups. In both basins, RI events tend to form in environments with weaker environmental vertical wind shear than SI cases. In the WNP, RI events occurred in high maximum potential intensity environments characterized by warmer sea surface temperature, greater upperoceanic heat content, and stronger upperlevel divergence. RI events tend to occur in favorable environments with higher lowerlevel relative humidity, and cooler upperlevel temperatures than nonRI cases. For TBB observations, RI cases have larger cold TBB covering areas in the innercore regions, and lower average symmetry TBB within the eyewalls of the storms. The KNearest Neighbor (KNN) rule is employed to identify the RI cases using leaveoneout cross validation. The results show that the verification of forecasts is generally skillful.
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Supported by:Beijing E-Tiller Technology Development Co., Ltd.
Supported by:Beijing E-Tiller Technology Development Co., Ltd.