Simulation and Projection of Temperature Change in Three Gorges Reservoir Based on HighResolution Regional Climate Model
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Abstract:
Based on the daily temperature data from 1961 to 2005 of Three Gorges Reservoir, the capability of the RegCM4 driven by the BCC_CSM11 and CCLM driven by the MPIESMLR to simulate the annual mean temperature and extreme high temperature is examined. According to the regional climate model, in which simulations are closer to observations, projected are the temperature changes in Three Gorges Reservoir from 2016 to 2035 under the RCP45 scenario. The results show that the temporal and spatial changes of simulated annual mean temperature, high temperature days, and high temperature intensity are broadly comparable with the observations. But both RegCM4 and CCLM underestimate the annual mean temperature, high temperature days, and high temperature intensity in the northeast part of the Three Gorges Reservoir region. Meanwhile, RegCM4 and CCLM can simulate the annual variations of mean temperature and high temperature days quite well, except for high temperature intensity. On the whole, the temperature simulated by CCLM is better than that by RegCM4 The annual mean temperature and high temperature days over the whole basin will increase 06 ℃ and 5 days in 2016-2035 under the RCP45 scenario, respectively, relative to the observations of 1986-2005 The variation of high temperature intensity is not obvious.
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Supported by:Beijing E-Tiller Technology Development Co., Ltd.
Supported by:Beijing E-Tiller Technology Development Co., Ltd.