Forecasting Method of DryHot Wind in Henan Province Based on Specific Factors
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Abstract:
The daily observational data and forecast data of the European center model from 2000 to 2014 of 1st to 31th May of 121 meteorological stations are used to analyze the dryhot wind events in Henan Province,and the classification models of dryhot wind weather are summarized. The objective forecasting method of dryhot wind of Henan Province by using multiple regression method is established. The results show that the main circulation patterns for dryhot wind in Henan province can be divided into three types: northwest airflow type, high pressure ridge type, and zonal circulation type. Through multiple regression analysis, the daily maximum temperature forecast factors are screened: the highest temperature of previous day, the lowest temperature of the day, 08:00 temperature, and EC850 hPa 24hour temperature forecast. The relative humidity forecast factors are: EC850 hPa 24hours relative humidity forecast, 14:00 relative humidity of the previous day, and 08:00 dew point temperature of the day. The wind speed forecast factor is: EC finegrid 10 meters wind forecast in the past 3 hours. The forecast equations of temperature, humidity and wind speed are established. The dryhot wind weather forecast equation is used for 2014 for verification. The results show that the weak dryhot wind forecast TS score is 62%, and strong dryhot wind forecast TS score is 64%.
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Supported by:Beijing E-Tiller Technology Development Co., Ltd.
Supported by:Beijing E-Tiller Technology Development Co., Ltd.