Verification of Numerical Forecast Products for Tianjin Precipitation Forecast in Recent Three Years
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Abstract:
The T639 numerical prediction of Chinese National Meteorological Center, Japan precipitation prediction, the ECMWF numerical prediction (ECthin) and Tianjin guidance forecast products on the precipitation forecast results of the Tianjin area are tested. The results show that the accuracies of all precipitation forecasting models decrease with the extension of lead time. The forecast accuracies of the model products in the Tianjin area are better in autumn, winter and spring than that in summer. The ECthin product has more obvious advantages in the precipitation forecast in winter, and the Tianjin guidance forecast and T639 numerical prediction are more indicative of precipitation in the wet period of May, June and September in Tianjin. Based on the classification and analysis of the 23 rainstorm processes in the Tianjin area from 2014 to 2016, the rainy/fine forecasting for heavy rainfall has better reference value, while the graded precipitation forecast has greater deviation. Compared to the local rainstorms, the numerical prediction of regional rainstorms are of more reliable reference significance.
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Supported by:Beijing E-Tiller Technology Development Co., Ltd.
Supported by:Beijing E-Tiller Technology Development Co., Ltd.