Application of Blowup Theory to Rainstorm Forecast in Southeast Yunnan
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Abstract:
The test analysis, synthesis analysis and application of prediction are undertaken by examining 259 regional rainstorm processes happened in Honghe during the period of 1980 to 2015, according to the irregular structure analysis method of blowup theory. The correlation between extreme low temperature and rainstorms, the index of lowfrequency gravitational wave and rainstorms is calculated and analyzed. The results show that obvious precursory characteristics of (low vortex) shear rainstorms, the Bay of Bengal Tropical Cyclone (southern branch trough) rainstorms, the rainstorms in the periphery of the subtropical high, and the westward typhoon rainstorms can be shown and analyzed by using the V3θ structural information graph 12 to 36 hours before the rainstorm, including the extreme low temperature at the upper troposphere, the nonuniform structure of 3θ curve, plentiful vapor at middle and lower levels, and the wholetroposphere deasil wind. The rainfall in the later 12 to 48 hours will magnify if the extreme low temperature goes down further. There is a significant negative correlation between the lowfrequency gravity wave index 〖WTBX〗C*〖WTBZ〗p and the rainfall in the next 24 hours.
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Supported by:Beijing E-Tiller Technology Development Co., Ltd.
Supported by:Beijing E-Tiller Technology Development Co., Ltd.