Application of LowFrequency Synoptic Map in Forecasting Heavy Rainfall in Guizhou Province
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Abstract:
Applying the lowfrequency synoptic map, the statistical prediction model of heavy rainfall in Guizhou Province is established based on the EOF analysis and statistical analysis of 500 hPa low frequency flow field corresponding to 59 regional precipitation processes from 2011 to 2015 The local applicability of the method is assessed by means of the accuracy rate of the 2016 forecast results applying extrapolation. The results indicate that the six key regions of the low frequency systems for Guizhou heavy rainfall are: west of Lake Baikal (Region 1, 40° to 70°N, 80° to 110°E), east of Lake Baikal (Region 2, 40° to 70°N, 110° to 150°E), east of Southwest China to central China (Region 3, 25° to 40°N, 100° to 120°E), western Pacific (Region 4, 10° to 40°N, 120° to 140°E), Bay of Bengal (Region 5, 0° to 25°N, 70° to 100°E), southern of China (Region 6,0° to 25°N, 100° to 120°E). The prediction model of the heavy rainfall in Guizhou is: the low frequency anticyclone appeared in the Region 1 and the low frequency cyclone in Regions 3 and 5 and the low frequency system activity in Regions 2 and 6 According to the cycle of the low frequency system in each key area, the forecasting experiment was carried out in 2016 flood season. The prediction accuracy was 392%, which indicates that the application of low frequency map method is well in predicting the heavy rainfall process in Guizhou.
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Supported by:Beijing E-Tiller Technology Development Co., Ltd.
Supported by:Beijing E-Tiller Technology Development Co., Ltd.