Transmission Risk Assessment of Schistosomiasis in China Based on Maximum Entropy Model
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Abstract:
Climatic and ecological factors have significant impacts on vectorborne diseases. The potential climatic and ecological factors affecting transmission risk of 〖WTBX〗Schistosomiasis〖WTBZ〗 in China are selected based on previous research results, and then the dominant factors are determined by contribution percentages to the transmission risk of 〖WTBX〗Schistosomiasis〖WTBZ〗 in China. At last, the relation model between 〖WTBX〗Schistosomiasis 〖WTBZ〗and dominant factors based on MaxEnt to model the transmission risk of〖WTBX〗 Schistosomiasis〖WTBZ〗 in China is developed and its modelling results are assessed as well. The results show that the dominant climatic and ecological factors affecting the transmission risk of〖WTBX〗 Schistosomiasis〖WTBZ〗 in China are annual precipitation, mean temperature of the warmest month, the number of days with temperature over 10 ℃ and enhanced vegetation index, and the accumulated contribution percentage account for 98.6% of the used potential factors. According to the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve, Area Under Curve (AUC) is 0917; i.e., the MaxEnt model based on dominant factors affecting 〖WTBX〗Schistosomiasis〖WTBZ〗 can model the transmission risk in China “very good”. The MaxEnt model results show that the medium and high transmission risk zone of〖WTBX〗 Schistosomiasis〖WTBZ〗 in China are located in Southern Jiangsu, Northern Zhejiang, Central Guangxi, Northern Guangdong, Northern Yunnan, Central Sichuan and Eastern Hubei, Northeastern Hunan, Central Anhui and Northern Jiangxi, etc. In conclusion, MaxEnt can model well the transmission risk of 〖WTBX〗Schistosomiasis〖WTBZ〗 in China under the impact of climatic and ecological factors, which can provide a tool to assess the impact of climate change on the transmission risk of〖WTBX〗 Schistosomiasis〖WTBZ〗 in China and reference to make preventive measures.
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Supported by:Beijing E-Tiller Technology Development Co., Ltd.
Supported by:Beijing E-Tiller Technology Development Co., Ltd.