Establishment of Statistical Prediction Model of Summer Precipitation in Eastern Tibetan Plateau Based on Predictable Modal Analysis Method
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Abstract:
By using the monthlymean precipitation data provided by the National Meteorological Information Center and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis project and SST (Sea Surface Temperature) data from the Hadley Center, the predictable modes of summer precipitation in the eastern Tibetan plateau are extracted based on the Predictable Modal Analysis (PMA) method. According to the existing researches, the appropriate predictors are selected and the physicalempirical (PE) model is established. The study applies the statistical prediction method to predict summer precipitation in the eastern part of the plateau. The results show that the four dominant modes, i.e., the northsouth reversal mode, uniform mode, middle mode and northeast mode, are predictable and meaningful, reflecting the anomalous variation of precipitation. The domainaveraged temporal correlation coefficient (TCC) skills of the 0month lead prediction and the 1month lead prediction are 0.44 and 0.36, respectively, which means that they are well predicted. The maximum is located in the southeast of the plateau. Timeaveraged pattern correlation coefficient (PCC) skills of the above two predictions are 0.46 and 0.42, respectively. For 0month lead prediction, the best year is 1998 and the worst is 1980, while for 1month lead prediction, the best year is 1998 and the worst is 2009.
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Supported by:Beijing E-Tiller Technology Development Co., Ltd.
Supported by:Beijing E-Tiller Technology Development Co., Ltd.