Application of Optical Flow Method to Verification and Correction of Typhoon Track Forecast
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Abstract:
This paper introduces the application of the optical flow method to the verification and correction of typhoon track forecast. The results show that: (1) By using the optical flow verification method, the prediction error of the geopotential height field can be decomposed into three error fields: intensity, displacement, and angle, and the quantization of the whole error field can be realized. The verification and correction of typhoon track forecast can be carried out by using the displacement and angle error fields. (2) As can be seen from the process of Typhoon Meranti, different numerical models, for the same process, generally behave differently. In the same typhoon process, the forecast deviation of different numerical models can be continuously tracked, and the model with the best forecast stability can be found. Then the displacement and angle errors of this model can be used for typhoon track forecast correction, which is also an effective way to improve the typhoon track forecast accuracy.
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Supported by:Beijing E-Tiller Technology Development Co., Ltd.
Supported by:Beijing E-Tiller Technology Development Co., Ltd.