ErrorCorrection of 10 m Wind Forecast in ROAD Model over Bohai Sea
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Abstract:
The decreasing average method and the 10m wind speed gridpoint field analyzed from 28 oil platforms and buoy stations over the Bohai Sea are used to correct the error of the 10 m wind speed forecast in the Bohai area of ROAD model (Regional Ocean and Atmosphere Model). Tests of different weight coefficients indicate: for the forecast field of Bohai 10 mwind speed, the correction is most effective when the weight coefficient is about 0.18.When the lead time is 12 to 72 hours, the monthly hourtohour root mean square error and mean deviation are improved significantly, decreased to 1.0 to 1.5 m/s and 2.3 to 3.0 m/s, respectively. Comparing the representative points of the northern, western and central parts of the Bohai Sea in the lead time of 72 hours, the maximum wind speed scores of every 12 hours turn out: in the lead time of 60 hours, when wind speed forecast is 5 to 6 m/s, most of the forecast scores in the northern, central and western parts of the Bohai Sea are improved. When wind speed forecast is 7 m/s, the maximum wind speed forecast score of the past 12 hours is improved, being 36 to 72 hours and 24 to 48 hour in northern and central parts of the Bohai Sea. The scores are improved most obviously in the range of the wind force distribution with the highest concurrency frequency.
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Supported by:Beijing E-Tiller Technology Development Co., Ltd.
Supported by:Beijing E-Tiller Technology Development Co., Ltd.