Capability of Forecasting Short Term Precipitation Based on WRF in Anhui
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Abstract:
Based on the hourly rainfall data of 1162 stations in Anhui from 2005 to 2015, the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of shortterm heavy rains are analyzed. The results show that shortterm heavy rainfall happens mainly in Tapieh Mountains and Wannan Mountains. The number of shortterm heavy rains changes in a singlepeak pattern annually, concentrated in June to August, and from October to next March, and shortterm heavy rainfall hardly happens. The diurnal change exhibits a doublepeak pattern: its stronger peak appearing from 15:00 to 19:00, and the weaker peak appearing from 06:00 to 09:00, while the two valleys around 01:00 and 12:00, respectively. Also, the capability of forecasting shortterm heavy rainfall based on the WRF model is estimated in different interpolation and assessment methods. The Threat Scores (TS), calculated in different interpolation methods, are all under 2%, and there is little difference among them. The Fractions Skill Score (FSS), a neighborhoodbased verification measure, is also used to assess the skill of forecast. The study shows that FSS varies with seasons, the space and time windows, and time bias. FSS in spring is the lowest, under 15%; it is more faintly affected by time bias, spatial and temporal neighborhoods than those in summer and autumn. In summer, the FSS curves, without temporal neighborhoods, are much similar, and obviously below those with temporal neighborhoods. In autumn, the model FSS with 1 to 2 hours later is higher than synchronous FSS, while FSS with 1 to 2 hours ahead is lower, which also happens in spring, but not so clear.
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Supported by:Beijing E-Tiller Technology Development Co., Ltd.
Supported by:Beijing E-Tiller Technology Development Co., Ltd.