Climate Projection of Summer Tourism Resources over Guizhou under Background of Global Warming
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Abstract:
Under the historical simulation during 1951-2005 and two different scenarios of greenhouse gas emission including RCP 8.5 and 4.5 over 2006-2099, the daily mean temperature, precipitation, westerly wind at 10 m and incident solar energy flux from the RegCM4 model are examined in this study in order to find out the comparison of temporal and spatial climate change in summer tourism resources between Guizhou and other regions in China over the 21 century. Results show that the increase of mean temperature in summer over Guizhou under two scenarios will be smaller that of the whole nation, and the warming amplitude after 2050 under RCP4.5 (low emission) scenario would be lower than that under RCP8.5 (high emission) scenario. There was no obvious change in other factors including precipitation, westerly wind at 10 m and incident solar energy flux. From the perspective of spatial distribution, the increase in summer mean temperature over Guizhou would be less than that in the northern and western regions in China during the 21st century under the two RCPs scenarios, though close to that in Yunnan. However, Yunnan would be dominated by the trend of increasing incident solar energy flux in summer, especially located in the highvalue center of rising under the RCP8.5 〖JP2〗(higher emission) in the midlate 21st century. Generally, Guizhou would continue keeping the advantage in summer tourism climate resources on account of the less increasing mean temperature and little changes in precipitation, westerly wind at 10 m and incident solar energy flux in the future. Moreover, environmental protection for emission reduction should be adopted to maintain and further expand the advantages of summer tourism resources in Guizhou.〖JP〗
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Supported by:Beijing E-Tiller Technology Development Co., Ltd.
Supported by:Beijing E-Tiller Technology Development Co., Ltd.