Fraction Skill Score Verification Technology for Kilometer-Level CMA_MESO Model
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Abstract:
The purpose of this paper is to analyze whether the FSS(Fraction Skill Score) score results obtained by the two methods are different when the forecast precipitation FSS is calculated for the CMA_MESO model, its horizontal resolution is inconsistent with the observed precipitation, two matching methods are adopted to unify the resolution. In this paper, the forecast data are the 6-hour cumulative precipitation of the 3 km resolution CMA_MESO model, and the observed data is 5 km resolution observed precipitation. The two methods of forecast precipitation matching observed precipitation resolution and observed precipitation matching forecast precipitation resolution are adopted, respectively. Four neighbourhood scales are selected: 5 km, 25 km, 51 km and 105 km; and four precipitation thresholds are selected: 0.1 mm, 4 mm, 13 mm and 25 mm. Two groups of FSS scores with different prediction times are obtained. Through analysis, it is found that there is no significant difference in FSS score between the two groups. The results show that when the horizontal resolution of the prediction precipitation for the CMA_MESO model is inconsistent with the observed precipitation, the predicted precipitation can be matched to the observation grid field, and the observation can also be matched to the model grid field. The two methods do not affect the FSS score results.
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Supported by:Beijing E-Tiller Technology Development Co., Ltd.
Supported by:Beijing E-Tiller Technology Development Co., Ltd.