Identification of Dominant Impact Factors of Typhoon Disaster Economic Losses in China
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Abstract:
Based on comprehensive data spanning from 2004 to 2021, encompassing 125 typhoon disaster events within China, and in conjunction with wind and rain observation data collected from ground meteorological stations as well as synchronous social and economic statistical data, this study develops a robust model for assessing the direct economic losses of typhoon disasters. This model takes into account causative factors, receptor characteristics, and disaster prevention and reduction capacity. On the basis of this model, we design a quantitative analysis method to conduct an in-depth exploration and quantitative analysis of the dominant factors influencing the change in direct economic losses caused by typhoon disasters in China. The research findings indicate that during the observation period from 2004 to 2021, overall direct economic losses resulting from typhoon disasters in China exhibit a significant year-on-year decreasing trend. Simultaneously, there are discernible signs of weakening in the wind and rain intensity associated with these typhoons in China. Taking 2012 as the cut-off point (the year when real-time correction technology for ensemble forecast of typhoon paths is officially put into use), our study finds that prior to this year, the typhoon wind index is identified as the most significant factor contributing to economic losses from these disasters during the observation period from 2004 to 2021; however, its influence decreases significantly after 2012, becoming the smallest contributing factor to the direct economic losses of typhoon disasters during the observation period from 2012 to 2021. Compared with the observation period from 2004 to 2011, there is a notable increase in contributions to the direct economic losses of typhoon disasters in China from factors related to typhoons after 2012, such as the typhoon rain index, regional GDP, typhoon intensity forecast error, and drainage pipe density factor. Particularly noteworthy is our identification of improved accuracy in forecasting typhoon intensity along with substantial increases during the observation period from 2012 to 2021 regarding drainage pipe density being the dominant impact factor driving down direct economic losses resulting from typhoon-related disasters. This study not only reveals differences over different research periods regarding dominant influencing factors on direct economic losses caused by Chinese typhoon disasters but also emphasises strengthening development and application of technologies for forecasting typhoons alongside improving infrastructure like drainage systems can effectively reduce their impact on society’s economy. These findings provide crucial references for formulating more scientific and efficient strategies aimed at addressing typhoon-related disasters.
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Supported by:Beijing E-Tiller Technology Development Co., Ltd.
Supported by:Beijing E-Tiller Technology Development Co., Ltd.