單多普勒天氣雷達(dá)反演風(fēng)場(chǎng)高原低緯區(qū)域同化應(yīng)用
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國(guó)家公益性行業(yè)(氣象)科研專項(xiàng)經(jīng)費(fèi)項(xiàng)目(GYHY201206039)、中國(guó)氣象局氣象關(guān)鍵技術(shù)集成與應(yīng)用面上項(xiàng)目(CMAGJ2014M44)、“云南省山洪地質(zhì)災(zāi)害精細(xì)化氣象預(yù)報(bào)預(yù)警業(yè)務(wù)系統(tǒng)研究”項(xiàng)目、云南省科技惠民計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目(2013CA014)共同資助


Assimilation of Retrieved Winds from Single Doppler Radar over Low Latitude Plateau
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    摘要:

    為了改善低緯高原地區(qū)天氣預(yù)報(bào)水平,利用WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting)模式及其變分同化系統(tǒng)進(jìn)行雷達(dá)VAD (Velocity Azimuth Display)反演風(fēng)場(chǎng)資料同化試驗(yàn)。通過設(shè)計(jì)不同的試驗(yàn)方案,對(duì)2009年6月30日00:00至7月1日00:00發(fā)生在云南的一次強(qiáng)降水過程進(jìn)行數(shù)值模擬和對(duì)比分析,結(jié)果表明:同化VAD反演風(fēng)場(chǎng)資料后對(duì)區(qū)域模式的風(fēng)矢量初始場(chǎng)有明顯影響。同化系統(tǒng)能把雷達(dá)反演風(fēng)場(chǎng)信息有效地引入模式初始場(chǎng),改善強(qiáng)降水區(qū)域的水汽輸送和風(fēng)場(chǎng)輻合強(qiáng)度;同化VAD反演風(fēng)場(chǎng)資料后對(duì)區(qū)域模式累計(jì)降水預(yù)報(bào)有一定改進(jìn)作用。從長(zhǎng)時(shí)間累計(jì)降水量定量檢驗(yàn)結(jié)果看,具體表現(xiàn)為25 mm以上量級(jí)的降水準(zhǔn)確率明顯提高、漏報(bào)率下降,預(yù)報(bào)偏差更趨合理。不同的同化試驗(yàn)方案之間的模擬結(jié)果差異較大。同化頻率越高、同化持續(xù)時(shí)間越長(zhǎng),對(duì)區(qū)域模式初始場(chǎng)和預(yù)報(bào)場(chǎng)的影響越明顯。但同化持續(xù)時(shí)間不宜過長(zhǎng),否則可能導(dǎo)致系統(tǒng)移速過快、降水強(qiáng)度偏大、空?qǐng)?bào)率增加等異常。

    Abstract:

    In order to improve the weather forecast quality over the low latitude plateau regions, the wind data retrieved with VAD (Velocity Azimuth Display) method are assimilated to the WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) model by WRF 3DVar (3 Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation System). With different assimilation schemes, a torrential rain event occurred in Yunnan Province from 00:00UTC 30 June 2009 to 00:00UTC 1 July 2009 is numerically simulated and comparatively analyzed. The results indicate that the initial wind fields of the WRF model are markedly improved by assimilating the retrieved wind data. The WRF 3DVar can availably introduce the information of the retrieved wind to the initial conditions of the regional numerical model. The assimilation of the retrieved wind data helps enhance the wind convergence and vapor transportation over the rainy area. Furthermore, the assimilation help improve quantitative precipitation forecasts. The quantitative test of the 18 hour rainfall forecast shows that forecasts are more accurate, less pretermissions, and more rational pertinence for over 250 mm precipitation in the assimilation experimentations. The higher the assimilation frequency and the longer the assimilation time is, the more obvious the influence of data assimilation on the initial fields and forecast fields of the regional model is. But long assimilation time may increase the speed of synoptic systems and the overestimate rainfall, and so the suitable selection of frequency and time is crucial in numerical experimentations.

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李華宏,曹杰,王曼,胡娟,閔穎.單多普勒天氣雷達(dá)反演風(fēng)場(chǎng)高原低緯區(qū)域同化應(yīng)用[J].氣象科技,2014,42(5):823~831

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  • 收稿日期:2013-10-30
  • 定稿日期:2014-05-30
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2014-10-30
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