青海牧區(qū)近10年牧草產(chǎn)量變化與氣象條件的關(guān)系
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中國氣象局成都高原氣象開放實驗室基金(LPM2008008)資助


Relationship between Herbage Yields and Climate in Pastoral Areas of Qinghai in Recent Decade
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    摘要:

    利用DPS統(tǒng)計中的相關(guān)、回歸等方法分析近10年青海高原牧區(qū)5站點牧草產(chǎn)量變化與氣象因子的關(guān)系,并建立了牧草產(chǎn)量的氣象條件多元回歸擬合模型。結(jié)果表明:近10年來牧草產(chǎn)量的年最高值河南、甘德總體呈下降趨勢,曲麻萊、海北、興海總體呈上升趨勢;5站點牧草產(chǎn)量5月變幅最大為興海,變幅最小的為海北,6—8月變幅最大的是曲麻萊,變幅最小的是海北;5站點8月牧草產(chǎn)量形成期總體上日照充足,降水除河南階段性較充沛外,其余受限制,溫度除河南在牧草生長季內(nèi)當光溫出現(xiàn)匹配不當時呈負相關(guān)外,其余均受限制;氣象因子與5站點年最高牧草產(chǎn)

    Abstract:

    By use of DPS statistics, regression analysis, and other methods, an analysis is made of the herbage yield changes in the recent 10 years in five sites over the Qinghai Plateau (Henan, Gande, Qumalai, Haibei, and Xinghai) and the relationship between meteorological factors and herbage yields. The simulation results show that: Over the past 10 years, the highest annual herbage production was in Henan, an overall downward trend in Gande, and overall upward trend in Qumalai, Haibei,and Xinghai. In May, the variation amplitude of forage yields was the greatest at Xinghai and least at Haibei in five sites. From June to August, the variation amplitude of forage yields was the greatest at Qumalai, and least at Haibe. In August, during the formation stage of forage yields, there was abundant sunshine and ample rainfall, but the temperature was not high enough in Gande, Qumalai, Haibei, and Xinghai. In Henan, there was negative correlation between light and temperature during the growing season. A good fitting model of meteorological factors and the annual forage yields of the five sites is obtained, with the significance level being greater than 0.01, and the fitting results can be used as references for local livestock farming services.

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祁如英,李應(yīng)業(yè),魏永林,趙隆香.青海牧區(qū)近10年牧草產(chǎn)量變化與氣象條件的關(guān)系[J].氣象科技,2011,39(3):369~373

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  • 收稿日期:2010-03-03
  • 定稿日期:2010-07-23
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