迎風(fēng)坡暴雨預(yù)報(bào)中多普勒天氣雷達(dá)資料兩種散度反演方法的應(yīng)用
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國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目(40975013)和災(zāi)害天氣國(guó)家重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室開(kāi)放課題預(yù)報(bào)員專(zhuān)項(xiàng)(CMATG2006Y07)共同資助


Application of Two Divergence Inversion Techniques for Doppler Radar in ShortTerm Heavy Rain Forecasting
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    摘要:

    簡(jiǎn)單介紹了由多普勒天氣雷達(dá)徑向風(fēng)資料反演平均散度和徑向散度的計(jì)算方法,以2004年7月11—12日暴雨過(guò)程為例說(shuō)明兩種散度在迎風(fēng)坡暴雨跟蹤、預(yù)報(bào)中的綜合應(yīng)用。分析結(jié)果表明:①平均散度可以作為降水跟蹤、預(yù)測(cè)的背景場(chǎng)。降水出現(xiàn)之前,低層平均散度存在輻合;低層輻合加強(qiáng)或維持,整個(gè)區(qū)域降水將加強(qiáng);輻合高度抬升到中層并維持,降水達(dá)到最強(qiáng);輻合減弱并開(kāi)始出現(xiàn)輻散,區(qū)域降水將逐漸結(jié)束。②根據(jù)徑向散度的分布情況,可以提前2 h以上預(yù)報(bào)強(qiáng)降水的落區(qū)。強(qiáng)降水落在徑向輻合大值區(qū)后部的較弱輻合區(qū)內(nèi),且弱輻合區(qū)強(qiáng)度越強(qiáng),未來(lái)降水強(qiáng)度越大。因此,綜合分析平均散度和徑向散度隨時(shí)間的變化,可以跟蹤、預(yù)測(cè)降水的發(fā)展演變,特別是可以給出暴雨的大致落區(qū)。

    Abstract:

    Two methods for retrieving the average divergence and radial divergence are introduced by means of the Doppler radar radial velocity data. Their application in rainstorm tracking and heavy rainfall forecasting is discussed, as an example, by a rainstorm process on 11 and 12 July 2004. The results indicate: (1) The average divergence field can be used as the background of rainstorm tracking and heavy rainfall forecasting. Before precipitation, there exists convergence at low levels averagely. If the convergence strengthens or maintains, precipitation will increase in the whole region. While if the height of the convergence lifts at middle levels and maintains, precipitation will be the strongest. If the convergence weakens or begins to become divergent at low levels, regional precipitation will gradually end. (2) According to the distribution of radial divergence, the area of heavy rainfall can be forecasted two hours ahead: the area of heavy rainfall will be within the rear weak convergence zone of the largest radial convergence area; the stronger the intensity weak convergence zone is, the greater the rain intensity is. Therefore, by means of the comprehensive analysis of average and radial divergence changes along with time, the development and evolution of precipitation can be tracked and forecasted, especially, the area of heavy rainfall can be located roughly.

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王麗榮,王立榮,郭衛(wèi)紅,趙衛(wèi)亮,景華.迎風(fēng)坡暴雨預(yù)報(bào)中多普勒天氣雷達(dá)資料兩種散度反演方法的應(yīng)用[J].氣象科技,2012,40(2):213~218

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  • 收稿日期:2010-08-30
  • 定稿日期:2011-01-17
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  • 在線(xiàn)發(fā)布日期: 2012-04-23
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