云南省雷災(zāi)特征分析及災(zāi)情評估
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Characteristics and Valuation of Thunder Disasters in Yunnan
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    摘要:

    根據(jù)云南省2007—2008年的雷電災(zāi)害資料以及地閃資料,分析了云南省16個(gè)地級市的雷電災(zāi)害分布特征,討論了雷災(zāi)分布與地閃分布的關(guān)系,并從雷災(zāi)記錄中提取了6個(gè)災(zāi)度指標(biāo),通過AHP法(層次分析法)建立災(zāi)情評估層次模型和災(zāi)度評估方程,計(jì)算了云南省522次雷災(zāi)的災(zāi)度值,用SAS中聚類分析過程將災(zāi)度值分為4級,并統(tǒng)計(jì)分析了各級雷災(zāi)在各地區(qū)的分布情況,得出云南雷電災(zāi)害中小型雷災(zāi)分布較廣、出現(xiàn)幾率較大,而大型和特大型雷災(zāi)發(fā)生幾率較低、主要集中在昆明和德宏地區(qū)。該文結(jié)論為區(qū)域防雷減災(zāi)規(guī)劃提供了科學(xué)依據(jù)。

    Abstract:

    According to the lightning data of 2007 to 2008 and lightning disaster data in Yunnan Province, the distribution of lightning disasters in 16 prefecture level cities of Yunnan Province is analyzed, and the relationship between the distributions of lightning disasters and ground flashes is discussed. At the same time, six disaster degree indicators derived from lightning records and the hierarchical disaster assessment and disaster degree evaluation model equation are established. The disaster degree values of 522 lightning disasters are calculated, which can be divided into four degrees according to the cluster analysis in SAS. The distributions of lightning disaster levels for all regions are counted and analyzed. The results indicate that small and medium sized lightning disasters in Yunnan Province have a wide distribution and a large probability, and the occurrence probability of large and extra large lightning disasters is low, which concentrated mainly around Kunming and Dehong.

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殷嫻,尹麗云,許迎杰,劉平英.云南省雷災(zāi)特征分析及災(zāi)情評估[J].氣象科技,2013,41(1):184~190

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  • 收稿日期:2011-09-13
  • 定稿日期:2012-02-07
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2013-02-01
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