前期環(huán)流相似法在重慶延伸期天氣過(guò)程預(yù)報(bào)中的應(yīng)用
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公益性行業(yè)(氣象)科研專(zhuān)項(xiàng)GYHY201306022、中國(guó)氣象局西南區(qū)域氣象中心重大科研業(yè)務(wù)項(xiàng)目西南區(qū)域20141、重慶市氣象局2015年業(yè)務(wù)技術(shù)攻關(guān)重點(diǎn)(團(tuán)隊(duì))項(xiàng)目ywgg201508資助


Application of Analogous Precursor Circulation Anomaly Method to ExtendedRange Weather Forecast in Chongqing
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    摘要:

    利用1960年以來(lái)NCEP/ NCAR北半球500 hPa逐日環(huán)流場(chǎng)資料,應(yīng)用動(dòng)態(tài)相似集成預(yù)報(bào)方法,對(duì)離預(yù)報(bào)月最近若干時(shí)段內(nèi)的東亞500 hPa逐日高度場(chǎng)環(huán)流場(chǎng)進(jìn)行EOF展開(kāi),提取前期環(huán)流場(chǎng)的主要特征量及恢復(fù)場(chǎng),運(yùn)用相似算法分別與1961年以來(lái)各年同期EOF主要特征恢復(fù)場(chǎng)進(jìn)行比較,尋找最佳相似年份。調(diào)整前期資料長(zhǎng)度,再用相同的方法找出5個(gè)相似年,累計(jì)預(yù)報(bào)區(qū)域5個(gè)相似年預(yù)報(bào)時(shí)段內(nèi)逐日降水頻率,并將其結(jié)果繪制成曲線(xiàn),根據(jù)曲線(xiàn)峰谷變化,即可對(duì)延伸期預(yù)報(bào)時(shí)段內(nèi)可能性較大的區(qū)域性主要降水過(guò)程出現(xiàn)日期進(jìn)行預(yù)報(bào)。預(yù)報(bào)試驗(yàn)結(jié)果表明,該方法對(duì)重慶延伸期內(nèi)降水、降溫等天氣過(guò)程預(yù)報(bào)有一定參考價(jià)值。

    Abstract:

    Based on the NCAR/NCEP daily reanalysis data of 500 hPa in the Northern Hemisphere since 1960, a dynamic similarity ensemblemean method is adopted to perform extendedrange weather forecast tests in Chongqing. Specifically, the Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF) method is used to extract and reconstruct the principle spatial patterns of the geopotential height during the previous few months. Within the domain of interest, candidate years with the greatest similarities are confirmed by comparing the constructed circulation patterns in each year via an analogous precursor method. After altering the temporal length of the early data, the method is conducted again to determine five typical years. In the target area, the daily precipitation frequency is then accumulated in these five years, and further presented by curves. By tracing the peaks and valleys of the curves, the date of regional heavy precipitation can be successfully forecasted in the extended range. Forecast tests indicate that results derived by this method can provide some reference for extendedrange forecasts of precipitation and temperature drop in Chongqing.

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唐紅玉,李永華,何慧根,董新寧,張馳.前期環(huán)流相似法在重慶延伸期天氣過(guò)程預(yù)報(bào)中的應(yīng)用[J].氣象科技,2017,45(1):72~78

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  • 收稿日期:2016-02-14
  • 定稿日期:2016-07-15
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  • 在線(xiàn)發(fā)布日期: 2017-02-28
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