濟(jì)南一次霧過(guò)程的數(shù)值模擬試驗(yàn)和成因分析
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山東省氣象局重點(diǎn)課題(2015sdqxz01)、山東省氣象局青年基金項(xiàng)目(2015SDQN01)、山東省氣象科學(xué)研究所數(shù)值天氣預(yù)報(bào)應(yīng)用技術(shù)開(kāi)放研究基金(SDQXKF2015M04)資助


Numerical Simulation and Cause Analysis of a Fog Event in Jinan
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    摘要:

    基于中尺度天氣研究與預(yù)報(bào)(Weather Research and Forecast,WRF)模式并選取T639模式數(shù)據(jù)作為初始條件和邊界條件,對(duì)2015年11月13日至14日發(fā)生在濟(jì)南的一次大霧天氣進(jìn)行數(shù)值模擬試驗(yàn)。利用常規(guī)觀測(cè)資料對(duì)模擬效果進(jìn)行檢驗(yàn)分析,從不同方面分析這次霧的成因。結(jié)果表明:①穩(wěn)定的大氣層結(jié)、微弱的風(fēng)速、較小的溫度露點(diǎn)差為霧的形成提供了有利的氣象條件;②WRF模式能夠較好地模擬出霧形成和發(fā)展過(guò)程并且可以較為準(zhǔn)確地模擬出能見(jiàn)度的強(qiáng)度;③近地層中性層結(jié)和較為充足的水汽對(duì)霧的形成和發(fā)展有重要作用;低云的存在推遲了白天霧的消散;④在霧形成和發(fā)展階段,925 hPa以下為輻合上升運(yùn)動(dòng),之上為輻散下沉運(yùn)動(dòng),這使得水汽集中在近地層,有利于霧的生成;⑤近地層的冷平流會(huì)增大相對(duì)濕度,是霧形成的有利條件;非絕熱因子對(duì)這次霧的形成發(fā)展并沒(méi)有起到關(guān)鍵作用。

    Abstract:

    Based on the WRF (Weather Research and Forecast) model and T639 data as the initial and boundary conditions, a fog process in Jinan from 13 to 14 in November 2015 is simulated. The result of simulation test is verified by the routine meteorological observation data, and the causation of the fog is analyzed from four respects. The results show: (1) the stable atmospheric layer, gentle wind, small difference between temperature and dew point are the favorite conditions for the formation of fog; (2) the occurrence and development of the fog as well as the intensity of visibility can be simulated by the WRF model; (3) the maintenance of the neutral layer and enough moisture play the key part for the formation and development of the fog; the low clouds have effect on the formation of the neutral layers near the ground and postpones the dissipation of the fog in the daytime; (4) during the formation and development of the fog, the convergence ascending motion below 925 hPa and divergence sinking motion above 925 hPa can be favorable to the formation of the fog by making the moisture accumulate in the surface layers; (5) the cold advection can be beneficial to the fog formation by increasing relative humidity, while the advection below 850 hPa get warmer in the dissipation phase of the fog, the nonadiabatic factor have little impact on the formation and development of the fog.

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夏凡,楊曉霞.濟(jì)南一次霧過(guò)程的數(shù)值模擬試驗(yàn)和成因分析[J].氣象科技,2017,45(1):165~171

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  • 收稿日期:2016-02-16
  • 定稿日期:2016-06-08
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2017-02-28
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