臺風尼伯特(1601)殘留低壓局地大暴雨成因分析
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江蘇省氣象局預(yù)報員專項基金(JSYBY201608)、南通市應(yīng)用基礎(chǔ)研究“社會民生創(chuàng)新計劃——民生與社會事業(yè)項目”(MS12015038)、南通市氣象局科研開發(fā)項目(NQK201601)共同資助


Effect of Residual Low of Typhoon Nepartakon a Local Extraordinary Rainstorm
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    摘要:

    利用常規(guī)觀氣象觀測資料、地面自動站資料、NCEP/FNL逐6 h的1°×1°再分析資料、多普勒天氣雷達和風廓線雷達資料及GPSPWV資料等,對江蘇南通2016年7月11日一次大暴雨到特大暴雨過程進行了分析。結(jié)果表明:①該過程發(fā)生在臺風尼伯特(1601號)殘留低壓、高空冷渦低槽和副熱帶高壓共同作用的背景下;臺風殘留低壓北側(cè)倒槽頂部大的氣旋性曲率和高空槽前減壓導(dǎo)致低層蘇南附近α中尺度低壓生成,臺風殘留低壓并入該低壓,使低壓發(fā)展,氣壓梯度加大,氣壓梯度力做功使動能增大,導(dǎo)致低空西南急流形成,利于暴雨發(fā)生;α中尺度低壓內(nèi)先后有D1、D2和D3等3個β中尺度低渦生成,其中D3造成了南通地區(qū)的大暴雨,中心位于南通大學(xué)附近,最大雨強達1512 mm〖DK〗·h-1。②南通地區(qū)對流風暴觸發(fā)后,降水的凝結(jié)潛熱釋放增強了對流風暴內(nèi)的上升運動,促使低空中尺度偏東急流和其左前側(cè)β中尺度低渦D3的形成和發(fā)展;之后,中層干冷空氣入侵加強了對流不穩(wěn)定和垂直風切變,使D3右側(cè)多個低質(zhì)心的γ中尺度單體風暴強烈發(fā)展且受低空風影響移動緩慢,強降水得以持續(xù)和躍增。③風垂直切變突增時間較強降水出現(xiàn)峰值時間早約30 min,以及多普勒天氣雷達徑向速度的低空輻合(輻散)較對流風暴的發(fā)展(減弱)明顯提前,對臨近預(yù)報有一定的參考意義。

    Abstract:

    By means of the routine observations, surface AWS data, NCEP/FNL Operational Global Analysis data, Doppler weather radar data, wind profiler radar data and GPSPWV data, we conduct an analysis of the extraordinary rainstorm in Jiangsu on 11 July 2016 The results indicate: (1) The residual low of Typhoon Nepartak, upper cold vortex and subtropical high were the advantageous synoptic background of this extraordinary rainstorm. The large cyclonic curvature at the top of the inverted trough and the pressure reduction of high trough caused a mesoαscale low in South Jiangsu, merging with the residual low enhanced the pressure gradient, which resulted in the increase of kinetic energy, leading to the formation of a southwest low level jet (LLJ), which is beneficial to the formation of the rainstorm. Three mesoβscale vortexes (D1, D2 and D3) are formed successively in the mesoαscale low, and the extraordinary rainstorm in Nantong developed with D3, with the center located around Nantong University, with the biggest rain intensity being 1512 mm〖DK〗·h-1. (2) The convective storm was triggered by the mesoαscale low in Nantong, and the precipitation latent heat release enhanced the upward motion, which benefited the formation and development of the mesoscale easterly low level jet and mesoβscale vortex D3 located in left. Meanwhile the middlelevel colddry air intrusion enhanced convective instability and vertical wind shear, multiplied the low centerofmass mesoγscale vortexes, continued to develop, and moved slowly, and then heavy precipitation continued and increased abruptly. (3) The sudden enhancement of the vertical wind shear appeared before the peak time of the rainstorm for 30 minutes early, and lowlevel velocity convergence (divergence) were obvious ahead of development (weakening) of the convective storm. The conclusions can provide valuable reference to nowcasting.

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張樹民,王坤,孫剛,繆燕,陳鐵,丁愛萍.臺風尼伯特(1601)殘留低壓局地大暴雨成因分析[J].氣象科技,2018,46(1):139~148

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  • 收稿日期:2017-02-22
  • 定稿日期:2017-08-04
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2018-02-27
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