低頻圖在貴州汛期延伸期強(qiáng)降水預(yù)測(cè)中的應(yīng)用
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中國(guó)清潔發(fā)展機(jī)制基金贈(zèng)款項(xiàng)目(2013031)“貴州省氣候變化影響評(píng)估及應(yīng)對(duì)服務(wù)”、貴州省氣象局青年基金項(xiàng)目(黔氣科合QN[2017]04號(hào))和貴州省氣候診斷業(yè)務(wù)項(xiàng)目共同資助


Application of LowFrequency Synoptic Map in Forecasting Heavy Rainfall in Guizhou Province
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    摘要:

    本文基于低頻圖方法對(duì)貴州省2011—2015年59次區(qū)域性強(qiáng)降水過程對(duì)應(yīng)的500 hPa低頻流場(chǎng)進(jìn)行EOF統(tǒng)計(jì)分析,建立貴州省強(qiáng)降水過程的統(tǒng)計(jì)預(yù)測(cè)模型,通過外推試驗(yàn)開展貴州2016年汛期延伸期強(qiáng)降水過程預(yù)測(cè),利用回算試驗(yàn)的預(yù)測(cè)準(zhǔn)確率評(píng)估該方法的本地適用性。結(jié)果表明:影響貴州強(qiáng)降水的6個(gè)低頻關(guān)鍵區(qū)分別為貝加爾湖以西地區(qū)(40°~70°N,80°~110°E,1區(qū))、貝加爾湖以東地區(qū)(40°~70°N,110°~150°E,2區(qū))、中國(guó)西南地區(qū)東部至華中地區(qū)(25°~40°N,100°~120°E,3區(qū))、西太平洋地區(qū)(10°~40°N,120°~140°E,4區(qū))、孟加拉灣地區(qū)(0°~25°N,70°~100°E,5區(qū))和中國(guó)南海地區(qū)(0°~25°N,100°~120°E,6區(qū))。當(dāng)1、4區(qū)出現(xiàn)低頻反氣旋,3、5區(qū)出現(xiàn)低頻氣旋,2、6區(qū)有配合其它關(guān)鍵區(qū)的低頻系統(tǒng)活動(dòng)的環(huán)流配置為貴州省強(qiáng)降水過程預(yù)測(cè)模型。2016年汛期強(qiáng)降水過程進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)試驗(yàn)的預(yù)測(cè)準(zhǔn)確率為392%,表明低頻圖方法在貴州省強(qiáng)降水過程預(yù)測(cè)中的應(yīng)用效果較好。

    Abstract:

    Applying the lowfrequency synoptic map, the statistical prediction model of heavy rainfall in Guizhou Province is established based on the EOF analysis and statistical analysis of 500 hPa low frequency flow field corresponding to 59 regional precipitation processes from 2011 to 2015 The local applicability of the method is assessed by means of the accuracy rate of the 2016 forecast results applying extrapolation. The results indicate that the six key regions of the low frequency systems for Guizhou heavy rainfall are: west of Lake Baikal (Region 1, 40° to 70°N, 80° to 110°E), east of Lake Baikal (Region 2, 40° to 70°N, 110° to 150°E), east of Southwest China to central China (Region 3, 25° to 40°N, 100° to 120°E), western Pacific (Region 4, 10° to 40°N, 120° to 140°E), Bay of Bengal (Region 5, 0° to 25°N, 70° to 100°E), southern of China (Region 6,0° to 25°N, 100° to 120°E). The prediction model of the heavy rainfall in Guizhou is: the low frequency anticyclone appeared in the Region 1 and the low frequency cyclone in Regions 3 and 5 and the low frequency system activity in Regions 2 and 6 According to the cycle of the low frequency system in each key area, the forecasting experiment was carried out in 2016 flood season. The prediction accuracy was 392%, which indicates that the application of low frequency map method is well in predicting the heavy rainfall process in Guizhou.

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李忠燕,孫昭萱,張嬌艷,吳戰(zhàn)平.低頻圖在貴州汛期延伸期強(qiáng)降水預(yù)測(cè)中的應(yīng)用[J].氣象科技,2018,46(5):999~1003

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  • 收稿日期:2017-09-14
  • 定稿日期:2018-03-27
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2018-10-31
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