京津冀區(qū)域龍卷風(fēng)災(zāi)害特征分析
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河北省氣象局科研開發(fā)項目(18KY03)、河北省科技計劃項目(17275405D)資助


Disaster Characteristics of Tornadoes in BeijingTianjinHebei Region
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    摘要:

    基于氣象報表、中國氣象災(zāi)害大典、氣象災(zāi)情數(shù)據(jù)庫以及檔案館地方志等歷史資料,查閱1956—2016年京津冀區(qū)域的龍卷風(fēng)個例,按照“增強藤田級別”龍卷風(fēng)強度等級分類標準,采用專家評定法對龍卷風(fēng)個例進行定級,并運用時間序列、趨勢分析和空間分析方法,對龍卷風(fēng)的時空分布、災(zāi)害特征進行了統(tǒng)計分析。主要結(jié)論如下:①1956—2016年,京津冀區(qū)域共確認龍卷風(fēng)個例188個,空間分布上,龍卷風(fēng)發(fā)生最多的區(qū)域有2個,一是張家口壩上4縣:張北、尚義、沽源、康保,二是京津冀東部地區(qū),特別是滄州、天津、唐山、秦皇島沿海地區(qū)是龍卷風(fēng)高發(fā)區(qū);②時間分布上,1985—1993年龍卷風(fēng)發(fā)生次數(shù)最多,90年代以后呈下降趨勢;③龍卷風(fēng)在夏季發(fā)生次數(shù)占總數(shù)的819%,龍卷風(fēng)主要發(fā)生時段為11:00—20:00;④對有災(zāi)情記錄的122個龍卷風(fēng)個例,經(jīng)專家評定, EF4和EF3級各1例, EF2級14例,EF1級52例,EF0級54例。

    Abstract:

    The wind events caused by tornadoes from 1956 to 2016 in the BeijingTianjinHebei region are evaluated and classified by means of the expert evaluation method according to the Enhanced Fujita Scale, based on the weather reports, the Handbook of China Meteorological Disasters, the meteorological disaster database, local chronicles in archives centers and other relevant historical documents. The spatialtemporal distribution and disaster characteristics of tornadoes are analyzed through the methods of time series analysis, trend analysis and spatial analysis. The main results show that there were 188 tornadoes confirmed in the BeijingTianjinHebei region from 1956 to 2016. In the spatial distribution, there were two areas where tornadoes occurred mostly: Zhangbei County, Shangyi County, Guyuan County and Kangbao County of Zhangjiakou; the eastern part of BeijingTianjinHebei region, especially the coastal areas of Cangzhou, Tianjin, Tangshan and Qinhuangdao. In the temporal distributions, the highest occurrence frequency of tornadoes was the period of 1985 to 1993 and then tornadoes started to decrease after the 1990s. Tornadoes occurred mostly in summer, which accounts for 81.9%, and occurred mainly from 11:00 to 20:00. As for the 122 tornadoes with detail disaster records, based on the Enhanced Fujita (EF) Scale, the results of expert evaluation and classification are: 1 in EF4, 1 EF3, 14 EF2, 52 EF1 and 54 EF0.

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杜康云,顧光芹,許啟慧,楊銘,劉金平,白璐瑤.京津冀區(qū)域龍卷風(fēng)災(zāi)害特征分析[J].氣象科技,2019,47(1):140~146

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  • 收稿日期:2018-01-18
  • 定稿日期:2018-10-23
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2019-02-27
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