上海梅汛期候降水異常的低頻信號及延伸期預報
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國家重點研發(fā)計劃(2017YFC1502301)、國家自然科學基金項目(41775047、41790471)資助


Low Frequency Signals of Pentad Rainfall Anomaly during Meiyu Season and Its Extended-Range Forecast in Shanghai
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    摘要:

    提高汛期降水過程的延伸期預報能力是目前天氣預報和氣候預測發(fā)展的重要方向。本文以上海梅汛期降水為例,利用非傳統(tǒng)濾波方法提取多變量季節(jié)內(nèi)分量,分析了梅汛期季節(jié)內(nèi)候降水異常及其相聯(lián)系的延伸期關鍵低頻信號,進一步綜合多變量低頻信號建立了梅汛期候降水異常延伸期預報方法,并開展了多年的回報和試報檢驗。結果表明:①梅汛期候降水異常季節(jié)內(nèi)分量具有顯著的40~60 d低頻振蕩周期,與降水異常實況具有顯著的正相關和較高的符號一致率;②梅汛期季節(jié)內(nèi)候降水異常與超前10~35 d的熱帶及中高緯低頻信號有關,主要包括:熱帶MJO(Madden Julian Oscillation)自阿拉伯海的向東傳播、西太平洋副熱帶高壓季節(jié)內(nèi)活動的西北向傳播、PNA(PacificNorth American)遙相關型的季節(jié)內(nèi)位相轉換以及東北亞冷空氣的持續(xù)性異常影響;③綜合上述多變量低頻信號建立了延伸期候降水異常預報模型,對提前10~35 d的延伸期候降水異常的季節(jié)內(nèi)分量具有預報技巧,也能較好地預報實際的候降水異常趨勢。

    Abstract:

    Improving the capability of extendedrange forecast of precipitation during the Meiyu season has become an important research area for operational developments of both weather forecast and climate prediction. By taking the Meiyu season in Shanghai as an example, this paper analyzes the characteristics of intraseasonal pentad anomalies of Meiyu precipitation and its associating key lowfrequency signals on the extendedrange scale through investigating multivariable intraseasonal components extracted by nontraditional filtering. An extendedrange forecast model of pentad precipitation anomalies during the Meiyu season is further established by integrating the multivariable lowfrequency signals, and the performances of the forecast model are evaluated by the hindcasts and forecast experiments. Results show that: (1) The intraseasonal component of pentad precipitation anomaly during the Meiyu season has significant features of 40 to 60 day lowfrequency oscillation, which also has an significant positive correlation and high sign consistency rate with the observed precipitation anomaly. (2) The intraseasonal pentad anomaly of Meiyu precipitation is related to the low frequency signals from both tropics and the middlehigh latitudes, such as the eastward propagation of tropical MJO from the Arabian sea, the northwestward propagation of the western Pacific subtropical high, the intraseasonal phase conversion of PNA (PacificNorth American) teleconnection and the persistent anomaly influences of cold air activities in Northeast Asia. (3) The extendedrange forecast model of the pentad precipitation anomalies by integrating the above multivariable lowfrequency signals is statistically skillful to forecast the intraseasonal component of pentad precipitation anomalies with a leading time of 10 to 35 days. It also shows outstanding capability in predicting the trend of the observed pentad precipitation anomaly.

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梁萍,楊子凡,謝瀟,錢琦雯,常越.上海梅汛期候降水異常的低頻信號及延伸期預報[J].氣象科技,2020,48(5):685~694

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  • 收稿日期:2019-10-13
  • 定稿日期:2020-01-10
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2020-10-26
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