-5/s及以上,對日極端降雨預(yù)報(bào)有較好的指示意義。低層水汽輻合輸送、850~925 hPa間垂直水汽通量梯度的強(qiáng)度差異以及不同類型低空急流,與日極端降雨強(qiáng)度有較好的對應(yīng)關(guān)系。30 g/(s·hPa·cm)以上水汽通量大值區(qū)輸送西邊界及-(4~2)×10-6 g/(cm2·hPa·s)以下強(qiáng)水汽輻合中心位置的差異,對應(yīng)了強(qiáng)降雨落區(qū)上的差異。-0.8 Pa/s以下的垂直上升區(qū)發(fā)展高度及強(qiáng)度差異,與強(qiáng)降雨落區(qū)和強(qiáng)度差異相對應(yīng);低層散度分布能更好地解釋垂直上升運(yùn)動特征;東部沿海海陸地形差異以及西部山地地形作用,維持和加強(qiáng)了上升運(yùn)動。中低層差動假相當(dāng)位溫平流強(qiáng)度差異,與降雨強(qiáng)度差異有所對應(yīng);冷空氣在東北-粵東型、中間型和西南型強(qiáng)降雨事件有一定增幅影響。"/>
影響溫州臺風(fēng)日極端降雨特征及預(yù)報(bào)著眼點(diǎn)分析
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浙江省自然科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目(LZJMZ25D050007)、浙江省氣象局科技計(jì)劃重點(diǎn)項(xiàng)目(2024ZD05)、溫州市臺風(fēng)監(jiān)測預(yù)報(bào)技術(shù)研究重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室開放研究課題基金項(xiàng)目(WT-2022-KF-YB02)資助


Analysis of Daily Extreme Rainfall Characteristics and Forecast Points of Typhoons in Wenzhou
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    采用1951—2022年國家基本氣象站觀測、歐洲中期天氣預(yù)報(bào)中心(ECMWF)再分析等資料,研究分析了溫州臺風(fēng)日極端降雨特征及預(yù)報(bào)著眼點(diǎn),結(jié)果表明:造成日極端降雨的臺風(fēng)皆為登陸臺風(fēng),可分為東北-浙南型、東北-粵東型、中間型和西南型。850 hPa渦度達(dá)到8×10-5/s及以上,對日極端降雨預(yù)報(bào)有較好的指示意義。低層水汽輻合輸送、850~925 hPa間垂直水汽通量梯度的強(qiáng)度差異以及不同類型低空急流,與日極端降雨強(qiáng)度有較好的對應(yīng)關(guān)系。30 g/(s·hPa·cm)以上水汽通量大值區(qū)輸送西邊界及-(4~2)×10-6 g/(cm2·hPa·s)以下強(qiáng)水汽輻合中心位置的差異,對應(yīng)了強(qiáng)降雨落區(qū)上的差異。-0.8 Pa/s以下的垂直上升區(qū)發(fā)展高度及強(qiáng)度差異,與強(qiáng)降雨落區(qū)和強(qiáng)度差異相對應(yīng);低層散度分布能更好地解釋垂直上升運(yùn)動特征;東部沿海海陸地形差異以及西部山地地形作用,維持和加強(qiáng)了上升運(yùn)動。中低層差動假相當(dāng)位溫平流強(qiáng)度差異,與降雨強(qiáng)度差異有所對應(yīng);冷空氣在東北-粵東型、中間型和西南型強(qiáng)降雨事件有一定增幅影響。

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    Based on the National Basic Meteorological Station observation data, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis, and the typhoon best track data of Shanghai Typhoon Research Institute from 1951 to 2022, the characteristics of daily extreme rainfall events caused by typhoons and the points of daily extreme rainfall forecast in Wenzhou are studied and analysed using the percentile method and composite analysis. The results show that typhoons causing daily extreme rainfall in Wenzhou are all landing typhoons. Daily extreme rainfall is concentrated between July and October, with the most occurring in August and the strongest in September. According to similar rainfall patterns and paths, they are divided into four types: Southern Zhejiang, Eastern Guangdong, Middle, and Southwest types. The heavy rainfall centres of the Southern Zhejiang type and Eastern Guangdong type are located in the northeast of Wenzhou, and the corresponding typhoons land in the south of Zhejiang Province and the east of Guangdong Province, respectively. The heavy rainfall centre of the Middle type is located in the middle of Wenzhou, and the corresponding typhoons land in the area from the junction of Zhejiang and Fujian Provinces to the middle of Fujian Province. The heavy rainfall centre of the Southwest type is located in the southwest of Wenzhou, and the corresponding typhoons land in the middle and south of Fujian Province. Except for the Eastern Guangdong type, low-layer vorticity at 850 hPa reaches 8×10-5/s or above, which provides a good indication for daily extreme rainfall forecasts. The intensity differences of water vapour transport, water vapour convergence, vertical water vapour flux gradient between 850-925 hPa, and different types of low-layer jets correspond well with the intensity of extreme rainfall. The differences between the west boundary of the water vapour transport above 30 g/(s·hPa·cm) and the position of the strong water vapour convergence centre below -(2-4)×10-6 g/(cm2·hPa·s) correspond to the differences in extreme rainfall areas. The dense zone of water vapour flux and the convergence centre of water vapour flux at 925 hPa correspond well with the area of heavy rainfall, except for the Eastern Guangdong type. The differences in the development height and intensity of vertical ascending motion below -0.8 Pa/s correspond to the differences in extreme rainfall area and intensity. The characteristics of the low-layer convergence zone explain the distribution of vertical ascending motion. The uplift caused by sea-land terrain in the east and mountainous terrain in the west strengthens the ascending motion. The intensity difference of differential pseudo-equivalent potential temperature advection in the middle and lower levels corresponds with the difference in rainfall intensity. Cold air has a certain enhancement effect on the extreme rainfall events of the Eastern Guangdong, Middle and Southwest types.

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賈燕,傅方奇,周玲麗,曹楚,許浩恩.影響溫州臺風(fēng)日極端降雨特征及預(yù)報(bào)著眼點(diǎn)分析[J].氣象科技,2025,53(4):545~556

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  • 收稿日期:2025-01-17
  • 定稿日期:2025-06-03
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2025-08-27
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